Houston Astros: Spring Training Information (Spring Training '08)

Houston Astros: Spring Training Information

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By Ryan Kirksey
Location: Osceola County Stadium – Kissimmee, Florida
Pitchers and Catchers Report: Feb. 14
First Game: Feb. 28 @ Cleveland
Schedule
Projected Opening Day Lineup

Michael Bourn (CF)
Kaz Matsui (2B)
Lance Berkman (1B)
Miguel Tejada (SS)
Carlos Lee (LF)
Ty Wigginton (3B)
Hunter Pence (CF)
J.R. Towles (C)

Projected Rotation

Roy Oswalt
Wandy Rodriquez
Brandon Backe
Woody Williams
Chris Sampson/Felipe Paulino

Projected Bullpen

Long relief: Dave Borkowski, Chris Sampson/Felipe Paulino
Situational: Oscar Villareal, Mark McLemore
7th Inning: Doug Brocail
8th Inning: Geoff Geary
Closer: Jose Valverde
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Key Battles: The Astros enter the 2008 Spring Training with only nine players on their expected 25-man roster from the Opening Day roster in 2007. New General Manager Ed Wade bought into owner Drayton McLane’s perpetual mindset of “win now” and literally sold the farm to put an offense on the field that can compete with any in the National League.

The positional battles are already set in stone, but there has been some debate within the team and in the local media about the suggested batting order. Kaz Matsui, who has batted in the two hole in almost half of his career 1522 plate appearances, is currently penciled in that spot, with manager Cecil Cooper citing his success there last year with the Rockies; his ability to bunt, provide some speed on the bases, move runners along, etc. But Matsui’s numbers were clearly inflated by playing in Coors field last year compared to the rest of his career, and there is a push from fans and pundits for the Astros to continue to bat last year’s rookie phenom, Hunter Pence, second. If you neutralize both of their numbers from last year to 750 runs, it really isn’t a contest:

Matsui - .277/.330/.394 with 30 SB and 77 runs
Pence - .322/.360/.539 with 11 SB and 56 runs

Pence played in 108 games while Matsui played in 104, so the numbers are easily comparable. If you follow the philosophy that you want the best hitter coming to the plate more times over the course of a game and also throughout the season, Pence should be the man.

The rotation is almost set by default, meaning there are barely enough starting pitchers to fill the spots. The guaranteed spots go to the ace (Oswalt), the second coming of Ervin Santana (Rodriguez), a pitcher just off 18-month Tommy John recovery (Backe), a 42-year-old pitcher with an ERA a full run over the league average in 2007 (Williams), and two guys who should probably be in the bullpen (Sampson and Paulino). Felipe Paulino is the flamethrower while Chris Sampson is more of a finesse pitcher, so their battle should be an interesting one to watch throughout March.

New closer Jose Valverde headlines the bullpen corps, with the roles of 7th and 8th inning men loosely set. After a couple of years of the dominant Qualls-Wheeler-Lidge combo, we will see how Brocail-Geary-Valverde does.

What to expect: The Astros have no real viable options at backup outfielder and rotation relief should someone get injured or take an extended leave. And after the trades for Valverde, Tejada and Bourn, there is no one left in the farm for future transactions if the Astros need the help. Houston will probably keep a 12th pitcher on the roster this year to help ease the load, but that will not be decided until the last couple of days.

Off the field, all eyes are on new shortstop Miguel Tejada and how far this Justice Department probe will go. No one currently has an educated guess as to what the timeframe of an investigation and possible indictment would be.

Ryan covers the Astros on his blog at Fangraphs and statistics on his Baseball Notes blog.

Comments

[February 13, 2008 3:13 PM] | link | reply

Jeremy said

Nice article. I was wondering if Cooper does decide to bat Matsui second do you really think that he will choose to bat Pence 7th behind Wiggington?

[February 15, 2008 1:04 PM] | link | reply

David said

What makes you think Pence will hit 7th behind Wigginton? I've followed the offseason closely, and that's the first time I've ever even seen that suggested.

As far as the bullpen, the Astros have made it pretty clear that they expect Villarreal to be their eighth inning guy, with Brocail in the seventh. Don't know where Geary fits.

I wouldn't say the Astros have NO viable backup outfield options. Yordanny Ramirez is strong defensively, and Erstad still has enough to make a start once in a while.

[February 15, 2008 2:36 PM] | link | reply

Chris said

Agree with comments above that Pence is looking at 2nd or 6th right now. Wiggy is sure to hit 7th if Matsui is 2nd, unless somehow Towles ends up being the more potent bat. Will be nice having a bottom third that isn't necessarily comprised of easy outs.

As for starting depth, and maybe you left these guys off intentionally, but we've got Jack Cassel, Runelvys Hernandez, and possibly Shawn Chacon (if he accepts our offer) to compete for spots. Not a Spring Training note, per se, but Nieve is slated to be in the mix at some point this season as well. Also in the 5th outfielder competition is Reggie Abercrombie and Jose Cruz Jr. That will actually be a race to watch a bit.

[February 15, 2008 4:56 PM] | link | reply

Ryan Kirksey said

The whole Matsui, Pence, Wiggy things was me being lazy and not wanting to write out:
2. Matsui (unless Pence moves here and then he will bat 7th, assuming Wigginton is 6th)
6. Wigginton (if Pence moves to #2, but if he doesn't, he probably moves to six)
7. Pence (but he might move to #2 which would more than likely put Matsui in this spot instead of Wigginton)

If the season started today, I think Cooper would go 2. Matsui, 6. Pence, 7. Wigginton.

On pitchers, I think Cassel and Hernandez don't have the shot the Sampson and Paulino do, and I had to submit this before the Chacon news came out.

For backup OF, the Astros have a recent history or Palmeiro and Lane, and now field Abercrombie, Erstad, Ramirez, and Cruz Jr. They have a perpetual problem of not having an OF on the roster that you would count on should someone have to be out any time.

Houston Astros: Spring Training Information

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