Cincinnati Reds: Spring Training Information

By Justin Inaz
Location: Ed Smith Stadium - Sarasota, FLA
Pitchers and Catchers Report: Feb. 16th
First Game: Feb. 27th
Schedule

Projected Opening Day Lineup

1. Ryan Freel/Norris Hopper/Jay Bruce (CF)
2. Brandon Phillips (2B)
3. Ken Griffey Jr. (RF)
4. Adam Dunn (LF)
5. Edwin Encarnacion (3B)
6. Joey Votto/Jeff Keppinger (1B)
7. Alex Gonzalez (SS)
8. David Ross (C)

Projected Rotation

1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Matt Belisle
4. Homer Bailey
5. Jeremy Affeldt/Edinson Volquez

Projected Bullpen
Spare Parts: Todd Coffey, Jon Coutlangus, Gary Majewski, Marcus McBeth
7th Inning: Jared Burton/Bill Bray
8th Inning: David Weathers/Mike Stanton
Closer: Francisco Cordero

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Key Battles:

There are four primary battles that will have to sort themselves out in Dusty Baker's first spring training with the Reds:

Center field

The trade of Josh Hamilton this offseason opened up the starting center field job to three possible candidates. The first, and probably the default option is Norris Hopper, who performed admirably (though was perhaps a bit hit-lucky) in 2007 as a fourth outfielder. He has a combination of speed and small ball skills that may be attractive to Dusty Baker, especially given the Reds' "need" for a leadoff hitter. Another option is Ryan Freel, who, assuming that he is healthy (he's coming off both leg and concussion problems), brings more doubles power and speed, though also more strikeouts, relative to Hopper.

By far the most compelling option is reigning Baseball America and Sporting News Minor League Player of the Year, Jay Bruce, who bashed his way from A-ball to AAA last year. In fact, as an outsider, you'd think the job would be his to lose. Nevertheless, the Reds are extremely conservative when it comes to promoting their prospects, as evidenced they their decision not to bring up Bruce for a September call-up last year. Make no mistake: Bruce will have to play his way onto the opening day roster. At this point, I'd give Bruce a 50/50 chance of winning the job with a strong spring, while Hopper and Freel would probably split time in the job if Bruce starts the season in AAA.

Back end of the rotation

While Harang and Arroyo are obvious locks, the last three slots in the rotation are up for grabs among at least 4 legitimate contenders: Matt Belisle, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and the recently-signed Jeremy Affeldt. Top prospect Johnny Cueto is also a fringe contender, but he will most likely start the season in AAA, while Bobby Livingston is coming off of major shoulder surgery. Belisle's peripherals were vastly better than his ERA would suggest last year, and the Reds have indicated for most of the winter that he's likely to make the rotation barring an implosion in spring training. Furthermore, it would be shocking for Homer Bailey to not start the season in the Reds' rotation, despite his struggles in the major leagues last season (by the way, his groin injury is reportedly completely healed). So, barring injury, that leaves the final spot as a battle between the control-challenged righty, Edinson Volquez, and the control-challenged lefty, Jeremy Affeldt. Volquez has greater potential and is younger, while Affeldt has more experience and is coming off of a fine season in Colorado's bullpen. Too close to call.

Spare parts in the bullpen

The top five in the bullpen seem pretty well worked out from my vantage point: Francisco Cordero, David Weathers, Mike Stanton, Jared Burton, and Bill Bray. Stanton's name may surprise you given how bad he was in 2007, but Dusty Baker has already indicated that he's likely to use him in late innings this year. The last two or three spots are up for competition between the disappointing Todd Coffey and Gary Majewski, converted outfielders Jon Coutlangus and Marcus McBeth, and fringe competitors Brad Salmon and Scott Sauerbeck.

First Base

To most every reasonable observer, top prospect Joey Votto would have to be considered the favorite to win the starting first base job, at least when facing right-handed pitchers. He hit very well once again in a full-season at AAA, is well-regarded by scouts (though some have questioned his power potential), and played well in his cup of coffee last fall. Nevertheless, the Reds picked up the inexpensive option of lefty veteran Scott Hatteberg in the offseason, and it's hard to see how both of them can find playing time on the roster. Will the Reds go with their quality prospect, or will they stick with the aging but still-productive Hatteberg? I have to think that Votto has the edge, but if he struggles in spring training, the Canadian could certainly find himself back in AAA-Louisville.

Regardless of who "wins" that job, look for Jeff Keppinger to get playing time at first base against left-handed pitching. He also may cut a bit into Alex Gonzalez and Edwin Encarnacion's playing time next year, provided that Keppinger continues to hit and play adequate defense on the left side of the infield.


What to expect:

I've never watched a Dusty Baker spring training camp closely before, so it's a little hard to know what to expect. Last year, the Reds made decisions on their position battles fairly early in the spring, with Homer Bailey, for example, being among the first cuts. This year, however, there is more uncertainty surrounding several of the Reds' positions, and it wouldn't surprise me if several of those battles do go down to the final weeks...and even then, the roster will almost certainly change over the course of the season, especially if several of Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto start the year in Louisville. Perhaps the most important thing, like most other teams, is getting through the spring with everyone healthy. A fully-staffed Reds team can probably contend in the NL Central if several of the young guys produce like we think they can. But if people start getting hurt, there's no way they can hope to contend with the likes of the Cubs and Brewers.

Lingering over all of this is the question of whether the Reds will remain in Sarasota following the '09 spring training; Sarasota has been unable to commit the needed funds for a renovation of Ed Smith Stadium, and the Reds recently signed an exclusive-negotiation contract with Goodyear, Arizona, that will last through the spring. Those decisions haven't been made yet, but the writing is on the wall...

Justin is a life-long Reds fan and card-carrying stathead. He writes whenever he can find the time at On Baseball and the Reds.

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